All, thanks for reading this. I look forward to your insight.
I am retired and have been studying blackjack and card counting for some time now. I cannot say I have it down by any means. Counting at the table is much different from training at home. Regardless, I intend to get to the point where I am comfortable in the casino.
I am not looking to make a career of card counting. And while I have no bankroll concerns, I just want to play recreationally a few hours a week (probably < 20 hours a month) and at low stakes, mainly green chips. I live in an area where there are several casinos nearby with decent rules, but I also know from the CBJN report that they are quick to back off. Most of the ones close by are connected and so a backoff at one will likely result in a backoff at the others. I expect when I get so I can count and bet correctly, I will have to moderate my spread to some degree to try and stay under the radar.
I know this question is unanswerable, variance and all, and yet here I am asking it. All this being the case is it even worth doing anything other than flat betting using basic strategy? Am I thinking incorrectly?

