Can't You Just Fluctuate Up And Quit?

Say you live in Las Vegas or AC and you have no expenses going to
casino land. Couldn't you just play a little and win $300 or $400 a
day and walk? If you do this 300 days a year you win about 100k per year.
Of coarse if you fluctuate down you must stay and grind it out until
you win. Playing to get a 1% advantage seems like a long road to follow.

but you have to be playing at the correct stakes.

300/day from nickels or quarters is hard.

Imagine this scenario win the first three hands of a negative deck/shoe ($100 each bet,table min) but now the count is sky high. Why walk away ?

Aslo some days you will swing down and no matter how long you grind not get back to even.

"Playing to get a 1% advantage seems like a long road to follow."

It is a long road to follow, but that is the advantage counting cards. So what are you gonna do?

What you are gonna do is play with a big enough bankroll to safely grind out $300 a day (which respectfully I'm assuming you either don't have the BR and/or the knowledge yet to safely implement it) or develope add'l skills and look for other opportunities that do better than 1%.

I had the same grandiose idea with slot machines, blackjack, internet casinos etc... But on a more conservative lower expectation scale.

Here are my results . . .

1.) I had several thousand dollars in spending money. I had a $1000 bankroll at an online casino. My goal win $30.00 a day, cash out. That is $900 + per month tax free!!! That's two car payments etc..... On the first few days I made $100-$150 on several hands of $10 (1% max bet of bankroll) I cashed out anything over $1000. I had about $300 just after 2-3 days. Then I was cashing out between $25-75 for the next few days. Sounds good? Well i ended up losing my entire $1000 bankroll and only have $400-500 in winnings from the past several days. How did this happen?

1.) The casino caught on and maybe it was a bug, I don't know. While if you bet low enough and play long enough and have a sizeable enough bankroll with perfect strategy there is one thing you can't control GREED, ADDICTION and BAD LUCK.

You will get GREEDY If I Can make $300 a day why not $500 etc etc... and also winning your goal is hard to stop at, if you have any type of addictive personality.

If you are down $100-200 from your bankroll and just can't catch that small win for the day you will more than likely catch your losses and lose your entire bankroll, which is this happens only 1/20th of the time after winning $30 with a $1000 bankroll or $300 with a $10000 bankroll your still down $600 or $6000 and left with $400 or $4000 of your winnings.

This sounds easy but this get rich quick thinking will land you broke while it may be a high for a few weeks once you lose your original bankroll your screwed. Gambling is not a daily hobby, and this is nothing more than gambling, counting and stategy is a long term bet.

This is likened to drug selling, great and fun at first but when you get busted you lose more than you made or even will make.

Any comments would be appreciated. I had a gambling problem once but have recovered I am 20 years old.

I agree with you. It is possible to set goals and win .If you walk in with 5k and make the
right bets on positive counts it is almost a given. You will always hit that one day when
nothing goes right and wipe out several days worth of work. You will have to bet more or play longer to make it up.

Some are for it, some not. I'll see what happens.

If you are playing with an advantage, such as the one you get with card counting, the more you play, the more likely it is that you will make a profit. However, unless you are playing black or higher, it is highly unlikely that you will average $300 per day in profit. There will be days when you will lose everyting you brought with you, and they will happen often enough to bring your profits down to the level of the actual advantage you have. If you are playing with a 1% advantage, the more you play, the closer you will be to realizing that advantage overall. If you are not playing with an advantage and relying only on basic strategy and your form of money management, your losing sessions will eventually outweigh your winning sessions, and you will get behind and will not catch up.

You probably will get away with this. But, there is a small chance you will never get ahead and lose your bankroll. It is not a good bet, you are just trading a good chance of a small win for a greater chance of a large loss.

> Some are for it, some not. I'll see what happens.

Man, it's easy to hear what you want to hear! Who in this string is 'for it!?'

After you see what happens, please report back, and honestly.
ZigZiglar needs to hear the answer because the addicted gambler in our midst still thinks you have a chance.

Good luck, and I mean it. That seems all you are relying on.

BTW, do you know basic strategy, cold and hard? Do you know how to count? Do you know the Illustrious 18? Do you have a plan as to how much to bet of your bankroll, and when? Do you have a bank roll?

> ... there is one thing you can't control GREED, ADDICTION and BAD LUCK.

> ... if you have any type of addictive personality.

> This sounds easy but this get rich quick thinking will land you broke while it may be a high for a few weeks ...

> This is likened to drug selling, great and fun at first but ...

> I had a gambling problem once but have recovered I am 20 years old.

> Any comments would be appreciated.

Are you shinning us on? Aren't you the kid that lost $20K by the age of 20?

You asked for comments, and I mean this respectfully, but you are either 1) a 'user'; someone who uses thoses around them, with no thought for the trouble you bring to their doorstep, to support your selfish impulses, or 2) a rich kid with no idea what goes on out here, or 3) a guy who earned his own $20K and lost it by age 20 (for which I actually have some admiration) or 4) a kid addiccted to gambling.

If 1. or 2., I hope you grow up, and soon.

If 3., you must be a smart industrious guy. Learn how to play.

If 4., what are you doing hanging around here and making post after post about game strategy? You had a gambling problem .. once .. and now you are over it? You need to review those notes from rehab.

I am that 20 year old kid, yes. While I was trying to help with my previous post as from the message It reminded me of myself last year. It appears I came across the wrong way, I was just stating that even if you did have those winnings it is tough to not increase your winnings and do something for the rest of the day.

I was not judging I was saying I tried that and while I had lots of small gains, it does not compensate for the one major loss, which another poster has also agreed with.

Part of the $20k I lost was from earlier winnings when I first started playing Internet Casinos. Living frugal and having my car 1999 Alero, Oldsmobile paid off and having a perfect driving record I do have lots of disposable income. I will admit to coming from a family of compulsive gamblers mainly Grandfathers on BOTH SIDES.

I live by myself, I work in Real Estate and have an eBay Business. My mom is also a Realtor and recently remarried. I am not a rich kid or a dumb kid so give me credit there, but I was extremley depressed at one point and not having any friends or drugs gambling was my escape.

I have not played online or at slots in over 2 months, while I do still play blackjack I am IN CONTROL and expect to win and have a loss limit and a time limit which was something I could not do with pure gambling, keno, internet slots etc. . .

Comments welcome :)

> I am not a rich kid or a dumb kid so give me credit there, but I was extremley depressed at one point and not having any friends or drugs gambling was my escape.

Fair enough. You get kudos from me for at least having earned the money you lost. :)

> I have not played online or at slots in over 2 months, while I do still play blackjack I am IN CONTROL ..

I'll take you at your word and hope that's true.

> .. and expect to win and have a loss limit and a time limit

Pardon me, but while loss limits (session bankrolls) and time limts (for masking play) are valid concepts, the way you use them sounds like gambler speak.

An advantage player want's to play as long as he can and knows going in that losses along the way are inevitable. I just don't think you get it yet.

> I will admit to coming from a family of compulsive gamblers mainly Grandfathers on BOTH SIDES.

Don't let grandpa define who you are. Learn to play and learn to play right .. or quit gambling.

Good luck.

Sue Runner,

Thank you for your time, criticism and advice.

I went to Foxwoods last week 5 times, won every time. Went last weekend with $2000 lost $500 and left. Main reason was $25 minimum tables with horrible shoes/penetration and negative counts, also was not in a playing mood.

While I know denial is a sure sign of addiction I can promise you playing Blackjack is a very serious hobby for me as antiquing is. I made most of my losses back including selling all my personal luxuries I had so I have been beaten badly and have overcome the depression phase I was in when I lost my best friend of 8 years.

As for my family history, addiction is part of me but I am not gambling, I am playing a sport that requires real cash, would you not agree? I am a Green Chip members here and read 2-3 hours every day on blackjack, bought a table for my house and will be paying a friend of mine to deal to me so I can pratice, I bought 8 decks and a shoe to simulate real casino play.

I hope to earn your respect and the respect of everyone else here but Realize I only have 1 month as of today of Casino Gambling Experience.

I am working very very hard now in Real Estate, Investing and with eBay to keep my capital and increase it every month over and over I still have a net balance of about $15,000 saved with very little to no bills besides my rent and cell phone etc. . . My mother is totally against my gambling as she saw me lose everything I earned almost but I really have changed and Blackjack at a casino is totally differnet than online gambling where its just a RNG and a shuffle after EVERY hand dealt, not to mention you can lose money you don't even have, also the social scene of the Casino is a lot different and I only drive up when I haven't shaved, am comfortable and have a good friend/older family member to go up with me. I used to goto a slot machine casino 18+ 3-5 nights a weeek.

I am staying far away from Foxwoods for a while I am still up about $1400 from my first playing sessions. I will be investing that in more literate and studying. I plan to go there for my 21st birthday but until then I really don't want to go and I am keeping busy with work and will be very busy with eBay this Holiday Season.

Email me if you wish SUE RUNNER Antiques247@yahoo.com

I thank you for your advice, insults and compliments.

Gave me a good wake up call.

". . . The more we know the more we realize we don't know."

Everyone beleives advantage play is a LOT easier than it actually is- especially when they catch a solid run out of the starting gate. Sun Runner's advice to learn to play properly should not be overlooked. You should buy some software (CVBJ is excellent) and practice for a few months before you go back to Foxwoods. Playing those $25 eight deck shoes you will lose that money back fast (and probably more) unless you really have the discipline refined to an art.

As a semi-pro player I've seen a lot of "card counters" at the tables over the years. For every 100 'wannabes' there are 30 that can't keep an accurate count, 30 underbet on high counts becuase they don't have a bankroll, another 30 overbet their small banroll and blow up or get barred, and the remaining 10 eke out a tiny edge over those house. Its not gambling if your one of the latter, otherwise your just justifying another unhealthy adiction.

Thank you.

I am staying away till I'm 21 the last thing I need is heat and security because my age and I do look young too.

I am builing up a bankroll at over $10,000 right now or by next month will be there and that is money I can afford to lose, but by the time I'm 21 I should have $10k or even more in money I can play with.

I go on busy nights due to lack of secuirty getting carded (20 years old...) but also table minimums are $25 which is tough as I don't cash in for much just in case my bankroll does get taken if I get carded, i won 300-700 5 times and lost $425 once I am spending my extra cash from there and work on software, more books and time to play. When I do turn 21 and my skills are more advanced in the next year I should do ok, I am very disciplined and can leave anytime i want and i never have the urge to go often or by myself, I view it as a hobby/long term investment, any money or any penny I make i just save, I don't buy a thing.

Time won't be a problem for me, i'm single no kids and have flexible work hours... so doing a 10 hour day won't be a problem I am also only 1 hour + from 2 big casinos and 6 hours from AC.

Thanks chipstack!

> Thank you for your time, criticism and advice.

No criticisms, it's just how I write.

> I went to Foxwoods .. lost $500 .. main reason was $25 minimum tables with horrible shoes/penetration and negative counts, also was not in a playing mood.

The idea of showing up at a $25 min table with your limited skills blows my mind. It's gambling. To play to a low risk of ruin, do you have any idea what kind of a BR a $25 8D game really requires? You don't have it. Ask the boys in Green Chip; they'll set you straight.

I've played when I shouldn't; probably we all have once or twice. Can you walk into Foxwoods, see the bad pen, see the bad shoes, and walk out with your BR inntact? Try it some time. Gamblers can not.

> I am a Green Chip members here and read 2-3 hours every day on blackjack, bought a table for my house and will be paying a friend of mine to deal to me so I can pratice, I bought 8 decks and a shoe to simulate real casino play.

That is all great; I hope you learn how to play properly before you lose your stake.

> I hope to earn your respect and the respect of everyone else here

Why do you want to earn the respect of people you do not even know? I'm pretty sure most of these folks are perverted deginerate gamblers themselves. :) Learn the game, play only when you know you have an advantage, walk away when you do not, and respect yourself.

> I am working very very hard now ...

Good. Save your money; learn to play; don't piss it off.

> I thank you for your advice, insults and compliments.

No insults from me; just rambling.

Good luck.

Forget "$300 or $400 a day and walk". If this is supposed to be some technique for advantage play you are gravely mistaken. I will tell you exactly how this will play out over time (assumely you do have the discipline to execute the strategy as you describe):

a little less than half the time you will make the $300 fast. (say about 45% of your sessions). In these cases you will be leaving the casino in less than an hour or two assuming you are playing on the $25 table.

about 40% of the time you will grind out the $300 over very long sessions, sometimes coming back from very large mid-session losses of $1000 or $2000.

in the remaining 15% of your sessions you will discover why this doesn't work. You will be trying to get to your $300 win and never get there, after 10 or 15 hours of play you will still be down, possibly $3-$5k depending on your threshhold for pain.

The bottom line is you will lose if your not APing.
Trust me on this.