Free Forum - bust rate 09/01/2020 06:36

scaa71

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Jan 9, 2020, 1:36:43 AM

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bust rate of dlr for 6d, S17 is 0.282.
so how to calculate the prob of bust 40 hands or more in 100 hands?
any website may help?

Don Schlesinger

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Jan 9, 2020, 11:36:04 AM

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bust rate of dlr for 6d, S17 is 0.282.
so how to calculate the prob of bust 40 hands or more in 100 hands?
any website may help?

by: scaa71

One chance in 137.

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

scaa71

Posts count: 26

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Jan 10, 2020, 11:32:24 AM

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thanks Don.
would u plz answer my earlier Qn
what is the prob of
1) lost 8 units/+ in 4 boxes
2) won 9 units/+ in 5 boxes

bet 1 unit at each box,

Gronbog

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Jan 10, 2020, 12:23:40 PM

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The answer to that probably requires a simulation. I can run one if you can post a reminder of the rules of the game(s) you're interested in.

Don Schlesinger

Posts count: 6543

Topics count: 72

Jan 10, 2020, 1:46:10 PM

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The answer to that probably requires a simulation. I can run one if you can post a reminder of the rules of the game(s) you're interested in.

by: Gronbog

Yeah, there's just too many ways it can happen to do it analytically. Can do for a single hand (split four times, double all of them), but with four hands, it becomes ridiculously messy, and I don't think it's all that rare, especially with DOA and DAS.

Don

SCAA71

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Jan 10, 2020, 10:01:11 PM

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the rule :
6 decks, S17, DD any 2 cards, ES10, split up to 4 hands, DAS

Gronbog

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Jan 10, 2020, 11:33:52 PM

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I just want to clarify. Often ES10 is offered in ENHC games. Is that the case here?

Also, can I assume the use of basic strategy with no deviations due to card counting?

scaa71

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Jan 10, 2020, 11:34:31 PM

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The answer to that probably requires a simulation. I can run one if you can post a reminder of the rules of the game(s) you're interested in.

by: Gronbog

thanks for your effort in advance

Gronbog

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Jan 11, 2020, 11:52:20 PM

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scaa71, I still need an answer to my question about whether this is an ENHC game.

scaa71

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Jan 12, 2020, 12:38:09 AM

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I just want to clarify. Often ES10 is offered in ENHC games. Is that the case here?

Also, can I assume the use of basic strategy with no deviations due to card counting?

by: Gronbog

ENHC, yes
BS, no counting.
appreciate

Gronbog

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Jan 14, 2020, 11:01:23 PM

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I ran two 10 billion round simulations for these rules, one with 4 spots and the other with 5 spots.

The probability of losing 8 or more units using 4 spots was 0.10%

The probability of winning 9 or more units using 5 spots was 0.54%

I can provide the complete distributions of the results if you need them.

scaa71

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Jan 15, 2020, 9:42:33 AM

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I ran two 10 billion round simulations for these rules, one with 4 spots and the other with 5 spots.

The probability of losing 8 or more units using 4 spots was 0.10%

The probability of winning 9 or more units using 5 spots was 0.54%

I can provide the complete distributions of the results if you need them.

by: Gronbog

thanks, i thought it was very very rarely to happen at both case

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