Betting strategy question

Hi folks,

Have a quick question for some pros out there. I wanted to tell you how I calculate my bet spreads and if anyone can tell me what the pitfalls of this strategy is I would really appreciate it.

At the start of a calendar month I calculate my bankroll. I then use simulations to calculate my maximum bet spread possible with no more than a .03% probability of losing this bankroll in the maximum number of hands I have ever played in a month. I then use that bet spread for that month and then repeat the process on the first of the next month. I've found my bets have been progressing for the first six months but I've had the voodoo put on me so my bets have dropped about 20% in the last 2 months. The theory is that I will not go bankrupt because I will drop my bets at the end of the month.

Although I've had a bad couple of months (lost about 20% of my bankroll) my results aren't showing fluctuations big enough to show indications I will hit ruin. However using one of the risk of ruin calculators I have noticed I am playing at a level well above general risk of ruin %.

So my questions to all you mathematicians/pros out there.

1) Am I heading to ruin with this strategy?
2) If not ruin, any predictions on what may happen?
3) Any suggestions or modifcations/ other strategies to increase my bankroll?

Thanks in advance for any help out there.

Cheers,
MCCE.

You should not recalculate your bankroll at the beginning of each month and "start over", but only for the purposes of keeping track of profit/loss. Your blackjack life will be filled with peaks and valleys (even much lower than 20 percent). Road to Ruin is when you hit zero. This ROR percentage includes someone who is down to their last chip and comes back all the way. So keep counting and betting in accordance to the count and unless you are in that minority percentage, you should come out on top.

This ROR percentage includes someone who is down to their last chip and comes back all the way.

The above is simply not true. The risk of ruin one faces is based upon the size of his bank at the moment. If a player started out with a bank of 100 max bets and now has 80 large bets, his current risk is based on the 80 max bets he possesses, not what he had at the start. Adjusting bet sizes is not a bad thing to do if one has reached a low point. If a bettor wants to return to the risk he faced at the beginning, he should adjust his bet sizes to make his bank the equivalent of 100 max bets.

the 1% Solution! Always solid advice and you can bank on it.(no pun)

once you're down to 1 chip your ROR is essentially 99.99%. Resizing your bankroll after large increases and decreases is an important part of proper money management for players who want to maintain a constant level of risk.

For Enrico above, he's already playing to 1/4 kelly so he is correct to resize only infrequently. Rather than resize based on the calandar, I'd consider doing it when you reach certain win goals or loss points in your bankroll...resizing upward/downward more slowly as your bankroll gets bigger so that eventually your bankroll will be so large that resizing never becomes an issue.

Every time I lose 1/4 of my bankroll I'll just add more so my Road to Ruin will be zero percent. Simple.

If you start with 5000 and then 4 months down the road you have to add 2000, then you may as well from the beginning stated your bankroll at 7000.

Re-evaluating your bankroll is very much different than what I am talking about.

add money to their bankroll when they lose 1/4 of it. Your bankroll floats up and down....it is never really constant. An essential part of kelly betting is re-sizing your bets periodically to the level that your bankroll is at.

If you're just assuming a fixed bankroll then your risk of ruin floats up and down.

Either way, either your bet size or your level of risk floats up and down....something floats.

If you're playing full kelly (13.5% ROR at a fixed bankroll) and you just 1 max bet guess what...your ROR from that point onward is no longer 13.5%....it's higher and will continue to get higher as your lose more and more.