Betting Strategy and bankroll.

I am a long time viewer of the free message board here and enjoy the useful information. I have played casually for about 30 years, the last 10 of which I would consider myself to be a Hi-Lo counting AP. Over the years I have been able to build my overall bankroll to over 25K, and a session BR of $2K. I typically spread 10 to 50 bucks. My stop loss is $300. I have a midwest gaming 'circuit' if you will of 11 different casino's I visit. Over time, I have meet a few players who I would define as AP's after watching their play. All of them are telling me I am losing money by not wagering more than the amount described above, but I am always worried about mt ROR. Would any of you care to lend some of your professional insight to me? All replies would be sincerely appreciated. Thanks.

Yeah, people will be jumping on this. There are a number of issues. I will limit myself to one issue to give everyone a chance to weigh in. So....stop limit?? If you are a long time viewer of the board, I am surprised you would entertain such a thought.

So, your BR is $25,000. Your session BR is $2000 and yet you have a stop limit of $300? This means you will walk away from a VERY advantageous positive count when you reach a $300 loss, which is only 6 max bets, and possible a hand or two with splits?

These very positive situation occur too infrequently. You never walk away from such a situation because you have set some artificial limit. You might have to walk away if you have planned poorly and don't have enough funds, but otherwise, you just don't.

I appreciate your reply. I am a very humble player. My goal is to average a $150 win three times per week ($450 total). I have the 'fear of losing phobia.' I feel worse losing than my excitement winning...a common trait I believe in most people. 25K bank probably doesn't sound like much, but I built over a long course of time, starting my play at the $1 tables back in the day. Another shortcoming of mine...I really don't have much of a mathematical aptitude...some of the formula's you and the professionals use are well beyond my scope of comprehension, albeit if I really wanted to compute all of it, I'm sure I could find some help in doing so. So I stick to basic strategy, the simple hi-lo count, and obviously, a terrible betting strategy. :(

You need to rethink the whole venture. It will never work the way you are proposing it. Playing blackjack is not a salaried job. You aren't going to win $450 a week, playing three times, as if someone were cutting you a check. You're going to lose $300 with such regularity that your head will spin.

In short, your plan is unworkable and completely unrealistic. If you can't tolerate losing, there is absolutely no hope for you to play at all.

Don

Thanks Don. I'm at a loss at the moment on where to start my re-thinking process. I guess it all has to revert back to overall bankroll, playing bank, and the abc's of RoR & Kelly. After analyzing that I assume the next step is to be much more aggressive in my play and yes, I do know losses happen...often. I guess that's why I pay my shrink, to help with thought processes thru the losses. lol Thanks again for your input, very kind of you to take a moment.

Here is some simple guidance. Make sure you understand the house advantage for the games you are playing. I am guessing where you are playing, most of the games are not that good especially at $10. min.

each true count is worth about a +0.5%. When you are playing with a disadvantage, ask yourself why are you playing this hand. When you do finally get a good count (say in a 6 deck shoe), a few hands with a say a + 8 tc or so plus count, you have an advantage of say of about 3.5%. Think every $100 you plop down as you are making $3.50. Those opportntiies don't come around too often. Why would you only bet $50?

#25,000 sounds like a decent bacnkroll. With a 2 x $250 max bet, I would guess your risk of ruin is pretty low.

candid----------GROW A PAIR and take kewlj and Don's advice to heart!

I guess in an open forum I subject myself to comments such as yours idive. However, I posted to this site b/c it is well known and in addition thereto, I have a great deal of respect for many of the posters on here. Indeed, I'd be a fool not to take advice by the aforementioned.

I thought it might help get the point across. Best of luck to you!

No harm, no foul. Your point is taken, and thanks for the well wishes.

Like a couple bucks an hour.

It's impossible to sim precisely without knowing the details of the games you play. That said, I went with a SWAG and did a quick BJRM sim for a H17, DAS, 6.5/8 deck game. If you wong in at TC+2 with $100, then bet $200 at TC+4, $300 at TC+5, and $400 at TC+6 or more, you will have a EV/100 hands of $45, and your ROR is a reasonable 2.83%.

If you haven't done so already, buy and read Blackjack Attack, 3rd edition. It's available from this web site, I believe. There are tables that give you info about every conceivable game out there.

But one key is that you need to get comfortable betting more than $50. Or, just decide that you want to do something else with your money and time.

As Don knows, I agree.

Robbie

The problem with your limitations is that you don't trust your system and/or the math.

Over my 16 years as an AP, I've witnessed enough of Clayton's and Don's math in real life play to appreciate it's accuracy, which makes losing sessions just another day at the office... knowing that the wins will happen.

You need confidence in your play, and bigger bet spreads.

Whats the advantage of playing DDBJ out of a shoe cards face up vs face down?

Face up game is faster, giving you more hands per hour. And if you have to play with others at the table, face up makes it easier to see their cards immediately when dealt.

A tiny health benefit is you don't have to touch the cards, though of course you still have to handle the filthy chips.

After all, you are still playing with filthy currency.