I'm new to the game and I'm sure this has been discussed numerous times but....... What is the best strategy for betting on BJ. I've heard of a progression of sorts after every loss...such as 1,1,3,3,5,7,9,11, etc. Is this a good thing to do? Is there a standard that most "good" players go by? Thanks!!
if you want to lose money at a slow rate. Just follow a progression strategy like the one you desribed, and you'll slowly get grinded out by the casino.
The reason for this is that a strategy based solely on the previous hand winning or losing, does not reveal when the player has the advantage on the next round.
The only way to win is to get statistical information on the remaining cards to be played. Generally, if you know there are an abundance of high valued cards remaining, then you have the upper hand on the next round. However, the advantage is only yours if you know what to do with that information (i.e. you know when to deviate from BS, and know how much to bet mathematically, etc).
Besides card counting, there are a few other methods that are unconventional, and very hard to simulate with a computer. Things like shuffle tracking, Ace locating, etc. These methods will give you an advantage, but they're very hard to master. Using these methods, just one error can be very costly if you placed a max bet expecting to get the Ace, and the dealer ends up getting it.
So the choice is:
1. You can start on the long road of becoming a profecient card counter.
2. You can start on the painful road of becoming a long term loser playing a progression strategy.
It's up to you.
do not correlate their bet sizes with the results of previous hands in any way unless they are trying to make themselves look like poor players for the benifit of the casino.
Thank you for your advice and I understand what you are saying. I guess my trouble is figuring out at what point in the positive count I should be increasing my wager. At what point and by how much. I guess this depends on what type of BJ I am playing. If we can assume I'm playing 8 deck Atlantic City BJ, do you have a standard set of wagering rules that you go by?(such as +3 count, go from 1 unit to 2 units, etc.) Again, thanks for the advice!!
Sounds like you know a little about card counting already. I'm suspecting this post is not from a genuine newby to this game or even to this board.
Go Troll somewhere else.
I'm sorry to have offended you but I am not "trolling" for information. I have been reading up on BJ before I go to AC in two weeks. I just know what I've read about counting cards and that you are suppose to increase your bet depending on the count. However, I don't fully understand what I've read in the books so I was looking for someone to help me out in laymens terms. Sorry if that was an inappropriate question but, I am new to this site, and was just looking for help.
You first asked about progression betting, acting like the complete beginner.
Then you follow-up with how much you should raise your bet according to the count.
All counting system tell you about betting levels. It seems odd that you studied a count system, asked about progression betting, then asked about TC betting.
But just in case you're genuine:
Generally speaking, each TC point (after +2) is worth about 0.5 percentage advantage for the player.
This link may help you.
People continue to state progressions do not work. This I do not understand. (I do understand the mathematics behind the proof it will not work) I have been a "successful" Blackjack progressions player for over 8 years. This is not a lie, and I know there are others here also. How far and how long can I be on the positive side of the Expected Value line? I am serious in asking that question. AM I JUST LUCKY? I will admit, I am terrible keeping records of all my trips, but I am starting to get better and more rigorous at it. Over my last 19 trips, I have had one losing session. Overall for these 19 sessions, I am up 317 units, with my losing session being 240. (I will not get into excuses for the losing session, but I do have a story, and it did not have to happen, but it did). I never bring 240 units, so that was part of the error. My total play time for those 317 units is just over 20hrs. Yes, I am claiming 15 units per hour over these sessions.
Prior to these 19 sessions, I had a 19 session win streak going, followed by one loss for 140 units. What was comforting was my wins on sessions 17 and 18 totalled 140 units alone. Without any records, I know sessions 1-16 are all still in my pocket.
Some say, "big deal", anyone can win 37 of 39 sessions. Well I am not done. Prior to those 20 sessions, I had at least a 30 session win streak going. I will admit, I lost count. It could have been close to 35 sessions. Where is all that money? In my pocket.
My claim is now close to 67 winning sessions out of 70 sessions. That is just this year. This is how it was last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.
For those of you that know more than I do, saying my average session is 1 hour, what are the odds I could win 67 out of 70 sessions? What about 68 or 69 or 70 out of 70 sessions? I am serious about wanting to know how to figure these odds out. BTW, this is against a csm, with dealier hitting S17, DAS, we can resplit, but not hit split aces.
Thank you..
Dave
Are you playing the pro's 95 percent system? I remember you from his site. I tested it for about 60 sessions. It was more like a 90 percent system with me. I haven't played or tested for some time. Too busy with work.
...here's some in the "against" column. For cover purposes, I use progression betting schemes to up my bet when the count is favorable. Tagging along with a friend who is new to BJ, I happened to notice that the count at his table was through the roof. I suggested he start betting green and had him parlay up to a couple of hands at 75 each. He made about six hundred bucks in ten minutes. Boy was he happy! I saw him the next morning about ten a.m., eyes all bloodshot, all his money gone, with his ATM card in his hand. He says, "I tried that system you were using last night and I lost all my money." (I told him not to do that).
Heck, I've lost plenty of money using progression betting even when I knew the count was high.
But hey, somebody's gotta be out there at +2 SD. That means some poor sap is going to be out there at -2SD even if he's counting halves with a side ace and a side insurance count. Sometimes life is good, sometimes it sucks.
I'm also a successful progressions player, and since writing a book on the subject have received dozens of letters and e-mails from other successful progressionists. And much to my surprize I've yet to receive a single letter from anyone who tried my system and was unhappy with the results. Hang in there, and play your game!
Just bought and read Walter Thompson's book, 21 Century BJ. It's well written. I plan to try the system. However,I play at a Casino with 4 decks in a CSM.
Question: What effect does a CSM have on the system and what effect will 4 decks have?
My apology to Mr Thomason for spelling his name wrong in my last post
I am using a variation of the 95% System. My session bank is lower, unit wise, but I am using the "stutter" at X2 and X3, as well as drop backs every opportunity I get, as well as resetting at being up 1 unit. I do not keep count of my positive wins starting out either.
Most of this should make sense to you.
Dave
I purchased your book and found it enjoyable reading from cover to cover. I read it probably a year ago. If I remember you are a positve progressionist, that's cool. I am the opposite. In your book, I think you argued that negative progressions could not work? I can't remember your stance exactly, but if that is what you think, I would have to disagree with you there.
Anyway, the book is excellent and I hope you keep on winning.
Dave
The only thing Walter can say to refute the fact that his progression does not defy math, does not perform some miracle turning water into wine, and that your (or his) results shouldn't match what computer simulations tell us the bad results shoud be ...
For some unknow reason (which Walter can not explain nor even hint at) MANUALLY SHUFFLED AND DEALT cards somehow behave differently than what the math and computer simulations predict.
So if you would use his progression against CSM shuffle machine, your results can pretty much be predicted by the following formula:
NumberOfHandsPlayed X AvergeBet (with W.T.'s progression this is about 1.28 your starting unit size) X HouseEdge = YourResult.
Notice that since HouseEdge is a negative number, YourResult will always be negative, (plus or minus the standard deviation of the game for the short run amount of hands you play), no matter how you mess with NumberOfHands or AverageBet by altering the progression.
It would have been better to save your money wasted on Walter's book, and applied it to an airline ticket to Las Vegas where beatable games can be found.
Whenever I am really lousy at keeping records,
and whenever I look for excuses to throw out losing sessions (that time didn't count),
and whenever I lose count of my sessions (I won 'at least' ...),
I DO REALLY REALLY WELL TOO!
So continue to use your record keeping system and justifications for why you sometimes do bad and sometimes do good,
And the odds are almost 100% you will continue to think you are way ahead.
The effect a CSM will have, is increased hands/hr, and therefore more wagered = higher house cut. Generally less people at the table which speeds up play even more.
In other words, you will lose faster.
