betting scheme

Posted this below, but thought I'd start a new thread up top.

I think I'm going to try the following betting schedule on a 15 dollar table with a 10K BR. Any thoughts are appreciated.

On a 15 dollar table.

<3 15
+3 and +4 25 (1 and 1.5 % adv.)
+5 and +6 50 (2 and 2.5% adv.)
+7 and +8 75 (3 and 3.5% adv.)
+9 and 10 100 (4 and 4.5% adv.)

Betting 15 on counts +3 and lower should reduce the RoR right? Is this a legit betting scheme. I realize that counts justifying 100 and even 75 dollar bets using this scheme are relatively rare, especially in a 6 deck game. Will they occur often enough to gain an advantage. Any thoughts are appreciated.

Skunkfunk9,

I used CVCX to simulate a 6D, S17, DAS game with 4.21/6 penetration (93 cards cut off: this is the game at, say, Hilton) for a heads-up HiLo player spreading $15-$100 ($15 at +2 & below, $25 at +3-4, $50 at +5-6, $75 at +7-8, and $100 at +9 and up) to a $10K BR, and found that your Risk of Ruin is 100%: bad news for you, but in this zero-sum game of ours, good news for the casino! Your Win Rate is -$1.34/hr, with a Std. Dev. of $207.47/hr.

The problem is that with this bad game, a $15-$100 spread simply won't give you an acceptable edge. Even worse news is that this is one of the better AC games, according to Current Blackjack News.

With this spread and a "play-all" approach, the "best" schedule is to bet $15 at 0 & below, $47 at +1, and $100 at +2 and up, which will give you a WR of $14.78/hr, a SD of $511.97/hr, and a RoR of 32.4%. See, another problem with your proposed schedule is that you're waiting for much too high of a TC before both raising your bet and placing your max bet. With the poor pen, you're playing 73.3% of your rounds at TC's of 0 & below, so with a negative edge. At TC=+1 you play 11.7% of your rounds, with an edge of 0.35%. Thus, the remaining 15.0% of the rounds are at TC's of +2 & up, with an average edge of 1.474%.

I realize you've found my previous advice unpalatable (playing at lower-min tables with a play-all approach, or else wonging), so this time I'll suggest something else: travel to find better games.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

The generally accepted method of beating 6 deck games is 1.) to get your top wager out earlier, usually at TC of +4 or +5 for reasons that you already mentioned. TC's of +8 and +9 just happen way too infrequently to overcome all the hands played at negative and neutral counts and 2.) to not play or wong out of at least some negative counts. If you don't do either or both of these it becomes hard to overcome the house edge as Dog Hand's sim results indicate.

4.21/6 penetration is NOT one of AC's best games. lol What is that about 70%? There is far better penetration at other games in AC. The rules mentioned are pretty good rules for AC, although you can find these rules plus surrender in a few high limit areas.

I definitely appreciate all the advice you gave, and will be wonging in and out around -1 TC. Will my RoR still be 100 if I wong out at less than -1 and keep that betting scheme? I'd prefer to not lower my min below 15 mostly because I'd like to play alot of different places to move around, and most places will likely have 15 min tables.

Skunkfunk9,

Wonging out at -2 does improve your results. If you play ONLY those rounds for which the TC is -1 or larger, you'll play 84.9% of the rounds seen, with a WR of $3.18/hr, a SD of $194.78/hr, and a RoR of 18.7%, for a 6D, S17, DAS game with 4.21/6 pen.

Note, though, that if you use this same approach at a 6D, H17, DA2, DAS game with the same 4.21/6 pen, your WR will be $0.27/hr, with a SD of $195.00/hr and a RoR of 86.7%.

The 8D results follow a similar pattern: for S17 with 6.21/8 pen, you'll play 86.0% of the rounds seen, with a WR of $2.78/hr, a SD of $194.86/hr, and a RoR of 23.1%. Go to H17, and these numbers become a WR of $0.06/hr, a SD of $195.14/hr, and a RoR of 97.1%.

By the way, if you ARE stuck playing an 8D H17 game, if you sit out at -2 & below, bet $15 from -1 to +1, $75 at +2, and $100 at +3 & up, your WR will be $10.84/hr, with a SD of $411.76/hr and a RoR of "only" 27.8%.

Good luck... you're going to need it ;-)

Dog Hand