Best count for a dealer bust

What TC results in the most dealer busts? I'm just guessing it's between 1 and 3.

I had to dig up an old computer output and work on it with a pocket calculator in order to include the probabilities of occurrence for each rank. The result was quite amazing:
The best TC for a dealer bust is -1 with 28.18%.With lower TC's the bust probability declines again.At a neutral count it's 28.16% and the more positive it gets, the less likely the dealer is to bust reaching 26.87% at +10.

Francis Salmon

So it not what I have always thought based on old hear-say that; "when there are more big cards, the dealer is more likely to bust". It's slightly just the opposite.

There was an interesting thread on this on Green Chip a few years ago. I think it was on the card-counting Board. SW and I both contributed data from studies that we did.

I am not sure if you can find it, but I think I reposted that someplace on GC in the last year. I can try to look up the old data sometime, but I won�t have time for a while.

A key fact that was brought out in this study is that there is a big difference between counts like HiLo and HiOpt, because HiLo counts the Ace. I don�t think your conclusion above is accurate: So it not what I have always thought based on old hear-say that; "when there are more big cards, the dealer is more likely to bust". It's slightly just the opposite.

What you see in the HiLo studies has a great deal to with the effect of the Ace. T My recollection is that there is an interesting discussion on this in ToBJ. I don�t have my copy here, but I think you find EoRs for dealer-busting in there.

This is interesting. With a high TC, perhaps the dealer has a greater chance of getting a pat hand and would not need to hit. However, I suspect than the answer to the question, "what TC does the dealer have the best chance of breaking when hitting" might be different.

otherwise a high count will offer us no advantage except for the 3:2 BJ payoff. A stiff hand is less likely, but if you get one, it seems to me that it is way more likely to bust, which is why we have indices for things like 16 vs 10, 15 vs 10, 14 vs 10 and so forth.

There's nothing like the hopeless feeling when the dealer has a 10 up, you have a 12-16, with the count high, knowing that to stand loses, to hit loses, and if you can't surrender, you are simply ripped.

So maybe the question was either phrased wrong, or it is not the same question as what you proposed. My goal in a high count is to not have to hit, except for those doubling opportunities of course. :)