BASIC STRATEGY ONLY

I guess i'll be labeled a progression troll for saying this, but I think this hysteria over the word "progression" is inappropriate. Yes, there are hypesters who promote their "systems" by claiming that their "system" can overcome the house edge. Everyone here knows this, so why keep harping on it to the point of calling people names?

There is an aspect of progressions in blackjack that i think is being overlooked. Before you label me with some uncourteous term please hear me out. There is one case where blackjack behaves as if it is "streaky". This is the case when the count of the remaining cards is steadily decreasing over a medium to long period of time. As you know, when the count is decreasing, as the true count is getting more and more negative, lots of high cards are coming out and the player is winning more of those hands. This has to be the case or the count wouldn't be getting more and more negative (or less and less positive).

We've all seen this behavior, the question is "how to take advantage of it"? I think what progression players are trying to do, in part, is take advantage of this occurrence. The answer probably will be, "you can't take advantage of this because you won't know until it is over that the progression occurred", fair enough, that answer I could accept.

If it were possible, though, to take advantage of the fact that the deck is steadily decreasing, meaning that the player is getting lots of high cards, isn't this something that we would want to explore?

I guess I need to change my screen name to Steve the Progression Troll now.

I have another point to make. It has been said here that the purpose of this board is "advantage play". Well, I am interested in advantage play, and I am interested in progressions to the point that they can help me with advantage play. Perhaps they cannot. I guess what I am wondering is since there are lots of topics that some people would say constitute advantage play and others would say they are not advantage play, shuffle tracking and ace steering come to mind (I don't know if these are advantage plays or not, I just know that some players swear that they are), who gets to decide what topics can be discussed here and what topics cannot be discussed here?

I guess i'll label myself a Progression post buster buster.

Regards,
Steve

... shuffle tracking is designed to take advantage of the exact phenomenom you mentioned.

Just went to Pala in the Fallbrook/Temecula area.....and I was extremely impressed....first class casino, great buffet, nice smoking-free portion of the casino, decent blackjack, etc.

when high cards are comming out the player doesn't win anymore hands than if small cards are comming out. The count does not do a good job of predicting wins or losses (in otherwords at +4 and at -4 the house still wins 47% of the hands). In very very high true counts (above +5) the percentage of pushes begins to move from it's normal about 8% to close to over 10%). Wins don't predict wins and losses don't predict losses. Likewise, consecutive wins are just about as likely to occur in deeply negative counts as highly positive counts.

You get your advantage from the 3:2 blackjack payoff and greater liklihood of successful double downs (and more soft double opportunities in high counts). The advantage does not come from any significant increase in your win rate.

BP, your conclusions that there is no basis to construct a valid progression system are absolutely right.
However, please, do not bend statistics. At a risk of novice players arriving at wrong conclusions let them see the data, so easily available at Norm Wattenberger�s site http://www.bjstats.com/bjch.asp , for themselves.
They should set tables to Win, Loss &Tied by Percentages by TC. Different counting systems and penetrations will generate various results.

Unfortunately, for most pro-progressions, it will be difficult to interpret how much ratio of wins to loses would have to change to become significant.

Regards,
Susan Y

I can explain, but it would be foolish to do so.

How would you handle it?

How did caninos find out about counting?

I'm reluctant to post even those few lines, but I owe a great deal to some posters at this site. Hence, my dilemma.

you all seem to get the wrong idea from me....i do practice counting frequently, and can occasionally use it at my home casino (penetration is normally bad, but occasionally the dealer does well, like last night cut about half a deck of 8 decks at a blackchip table :))))

however, i do generally have to use progressions to generate my income at the moment...

i know it does not give you a longterm advantage but it can give you a shorterm one...and thats what i play, for the 'shorterm'....

i play smart, have limits etc, and for now, this is getting me well ahead ( high 5 figures, 7 months)

yes you have the right to critize, but it is NOT your duty to put people down....

this is a BJ board, it says so on this very website...

statistics are all very nice on paper, but in the real world they dont always apply to everything.....look at vietnam, look at sport, look at high school dropouts thatve made millions....every now and then an underdog breaks the barrier and achieves something nobody thought possible

probability is just that...probability.

it is not ABSOLUTE certainty...

Green Chip has a site called "Other Games"? And why the free board once had a page called "Other Games"? The current posts on Green Chip "Other Games" are about slot machines, baccarat, and craps -- all of which have bigger house edges than progressive betting in blackjack. Are slots, baccarat, and craps considered to be "advantage play" games?
I don't have the time to establish and maintain a seperate website for progressive betting, although the concept is a good one and I'd be happy to contribute to such a site. Do you suppose Wong would allow a link to such a site (for those readers who had an interest in progressive betting)?

then that makes me a Progressions post buster buster supporter!
Way to go, Steve!!

Please read carefully. (I imagine you move your lips when you read, but try to focus).

Are slots, baccarat, and craps considered to be "advantage play" games?

Yes.

Slots:
Many slot machines offer 'progressive' jackpots, or play feature bonuses, that are built up with prior spins. An advantage slot machine play would be to 'wong' these type of slots after a previous player has built up a bonus, and then left the machine before hitting it. You will hear these type of advantage players talking about playing a 'Boom' machine with 49 firecrackers on it, or a 'Diamond Mine' with 3 lines of 7 diamonds on it, etc., etc.
**Note: Using a progression is totally useless when playing slots and trying to obtain an advantage.

baccarat:
Non-linear counting systems, shuffle tracking, 10-clump location, and a type of hole-card play could be used to obtain an advantage in baccarat.
**Note: Using a progression is totally useless when playing baccarat and trying to obtain an advantage.

craps:
buying don't pass bets, or finding players who sometimes want to leave their bet on the don't come instead of taking the point, or finding players who want to 'call off' their don't bets, are SURE-FIRE methods of obtaining an advantage at craps. There are other methods.
**Note: Using a progression is totally useless when playing craps and trying to obtain an advantage.

1) Cards have no memory! What it means in math terms is that each shoe is an independent trial. Hence your past performance has no bearing on your future performance. If you walk into a casino tomorrow to do your thing, it will be as if you walked in for the first time. So NO, there is no mathematical support for your fear about your luck being about to run out.

2) The EV matches actual result only when the number of trials are infinite. As you and I know, no human can play infinite hands. But the longer you play, closer will be the match. In other words the longer you play, lesser the chance of escaping the inevitable negative EV of the game (as you have been doing so far). No amount of quitting while ahead, stop loss, etc. nonesense will save you from that. There might be some mathematically sound methods to reduce the chance slightly by altering your play (making you play less hands for example) but loss is inevitable.

Summary: Playing just BS is a great idea if you really enjoy the game and maybe get comped a decent amount of stuff but it will not keep you winning forever.

probability is just that...probability.

Conversely,
Progressions are just that ... progressions.

At least probability is science, progressions? not.

That is true that you might have won for seven months but watch out for the one time you might fall!

Just a friendly reminder.

I agree with your argument that knowledgeable players can, on rare occasion, take advantage of short-term fluctuations in game conditions, or take advantage of less knowledgeable players. This is also true for roulette (discovering a biased wheel) and keno (discovering a faulty recording device).
By the same token, it�s also true that progression betting can be an effective camouflage tool for card counters, on rare occasions for short periods of time.
It�s also true that progression betting is superior to flat betting when clusters of winning hands occur more often than �normal�, which happens on occasion for short periods of time, although the ability to seek out and exploit these �abnormal� winning shoes is open to debate.
Point is, I consider myself to be an �advantage� blackjack player, based upon the results of my research and the results of my actual playing experience. You and others obviously doubt the integrity of my work and my reported success at the tables, but so what? The number of inquiries posted on this site clearly indicate that many people have at least a passing interest in progressive betting, and are entitled to something more than a total rejection of its worth.
If banning progression posts is supported by the majority of posters on this board, then ALL discussion on this topic -- both negative and

...positive -- should be banned.

Ten players buy my lucky rabbit's foot for $100 each. They play strict basic strategy and use my 1-1-1 progression. They all go to Vegas 4 times a year, and play 20 hours each trip. They average about 75 hands per hour, and after 10 years will have played 800 hours, for a total of 60,000 hands each after 10 years. Just because of standard deviation, two or three of these players will still be ahead.

So, using your logic, we should have 3 new posters here saying things like, "I bought SOTSOG's lucky rabbit's foot, and after 10 years of testing, I am ahead of the game. There must be something to this rabbit foot stuff that the computer simulations don't show."
"Yes", chimes in the 2nd 'lucky' rabbit foot player, "Why isn't this 1-1-1 progression combined with a SOTSOG's lucky rabbit's foot a valid topic of discussion on these pages? Combined with that other poster, we have over 20 years of extensive testing!"
The 3rd 'lucky' rabbit foot player could post on his theories of why winning streaks are more likely when using SOTSOG's lucky rabbit foot. Obviously the math boyz are wrong, many players are experiencing success with this system. We need a Rabbit's Foot Page!

Of course, I would be here to chum the waters, so if any of the other 7 or 8 players showed up, I could point out that they probably didn't have the right disipline of sticking to the 1-1-1 progression, or they haven't used the system extensively enough, or if all else fails, they are in the small 1% or 2% minority who the rabbit foot doesn't work for. Unfortunately, because of the now 'proven' real world tested in actual casino conditions, my lucky rabbit's feet now cost $150 each.

But what if the math boys ARE wrong? What if the math and the simulations don't accurately predict the flow of wins and losses in blackjack? What if those same 10 players averaged 200,000 hands of actual blackjack play, and the majority were winners? According to your logic, these results shouldn't be posted on public websites because the math and the simulations say it can't happen.
The unrestricted exchange of information would be disallowed, and questions concerning the accuracy of predictions by simulation would be banned.
Good thing you're not the website manager.

When the planets start flying out of their orbits and crashing into each other, and water starts flowing uphill, and all the other things that occur in the universe stop occurring the way math predicts they should ... then I will entertain your idea that for some reason pasteboard cards dealt on a green felt surface has some magical property that math cannot predict.

But since the planets do maintain their orbits, and water flows downhill, and water very rarely turns into wine,

I say you have to prove (or at least forward a theory) as to WHY the math is wrong.

As we have been over 100 time before, WHAT IF ... and BECAUSE I THINK SO ... are *NOT* valid reasons.

I propose WHAT IF you had a brain? Would you still stubbornly cling to such ignorant thoughts? WHAT IF you know what you post is actually wrong?

But what if the math boys ARE wrong? What if the math and the simulations don't accurately predict the flow of wins and losses in blackjack?

I am actually not opposed to discussions from this perspective. Probability theory, after all, IS just a theory. However, it is a theory that's been verified over a couple of centuries by the experience of countless gamblers and mathematicians.

People should be aware that accepting Walter's ideas involves the wholesale rejection of traditional probability theory. People should also be aware that Walter has professed ignorance about basic elements, such as how to calculate variance. I personally believe if PT is ever overturned, it will be by someone thoroughly grounded in the basics of what is being challenged.

JMHO,
ETF