BASIC STRATEGY ONLY

I am a new player and things are going very well - playing perfect basic strategy ONLY (Vegas Strip 6-deck). Maybe one of you pro players can tell me if my winning bubble is about to burst.

Here's what I do: I play about $50/hand, play basic strategy without ever counting, go up and down, and - when I am up $300-400, I quit immediately, and then put the winnings in the bank. With a large bankroll, I can stand the valleys as I wait for the upswing.

So far so good........after about 50 sessions. Is my luck about to run out?

wouldnt say im a pro, but unless you set yourself a loss limit you could keep going down (easy if you have a bad start)...

that said, sure, quitting while your ahead is one of the key elements to being successful in the game...

i started with $100 AU a bit over half a year ago, now im knocking on 100k...(first few grand was all quitting while ahead)

you just have to be prepared for a bad run, it will happen (it happens too much)

if you win 300 a session, 5 times a week, then thats 1.5k/week...

what loss limit would you set??

most of the pros on here im sure will tell you that there will be times you have a bad start and wont even break even...

if thats how you want to play (shorterm), then play $100+ hands with the martingale system, and quit as soon as you get a win, have a break, and repeat a few times....

id like to know the odds of losing your FIRST 7 hands....

still you might run into that streak...you never know....

again im no pro, im in my first year, but ive been where you are...

if your happy with little money (in relation to what you could earn), then stay with what your doing...

if any pro says you will lose money dont listen, statistics and probability only come into the game longterm....

personally i think quitting while your ahead is the most imnportant aspect of the game, you need it no matter how you play....no good winning 5k then losing 10k....

I am not a pro but it doesn�t take a pro to work this 1 out!

Yes you have been very lucky!
"Is my luck about to run out?" Maybe not in the short run but if you keep playing the way you are you will eventually start going backwards.

Quitting while ahead will have no effect on the overall amount won or lost in the long run, Still IMO setting limits is a good way of controlling emotions but that's all its good for!

If you keep following the "quit while ahead" policy then eventually you will have a session where you don't actually get ahead and you will keep losing until you run out of money.

If you set limits on how much you lose then the amount of times you cross this limit will be proportional to the amount of times you cross the limit on how much you can win. Eventually the losses will be more than the wins.

The bottom line is YOU CANT WIN IN THE LONG RUN WITHOUT AN EDGE
And basic strategy alone in most cases will not give you an edge!

Cheers big ears
PAST CRAZY

Welcome to BJ 21

If you are playing good BS BJ, then the House edge is very small. This means that the Long Run Index, as measured by N0, will be quite large. With flat-betting, it can be in the ballpark of 500-1000 hours (of 100 hands an hour), sometimes even higher if you have good strategy and good rules.

With bet variation (It sounded to me like you were varying your bets) it can be much higher. Since many BS players only get 50 rounds in an hour, and they only play part-time, many of them will never be close to the Long Run.

This means that there will be many BS players who are lifetime winners at BJ. There will be more who are lifetime losers, but some will have a net win.

In this discussion, we are ignoring tips, bonuses, promotions, comps, and dealer errors. I belevie that my careful coupon and promotion hustling, it is possible to gain an edge in BS Blackjack, especially if you attach any value to the comps that you earn.

Stop Loss and Stop Win strategies cannot change the House edge. However they will effect the distribution of your results. Recreational players are sometimes more interested in that than in their overall edge.

For example, if you goal; is to minimize the probability of a losing trip, the a Stop-Win strategy will aid in doing this. There is a catch, of course: the losing trips that you do have will be big losses, which will more than offset the winning trips. For most of us, if we had 1 loosing trip of 1000 unit and 9 winning tips of 100 units each, we would consider that to be a negative result. But civilians sometimes have different criterion.

re: [id like to know the odds of losing your FIRST 7 hands]

One series of 7 successive losses is expected in 430 rounds of blackjack or 126 rounds of Let It Ride - a lot of blackjack, not much Let It Ride. Conversely, one run of seven successive wins is expected in 638 rounds of blackjack or 37,756 rounds of Let It Ride.

�

Quit now.

thanks, was always wondering what the chances are of certain streaks...

still, by those odds, something like the martingale system would come out ahead longterm....

just say you play 200 hands at a $50 table and win 80 of them (a bit low), not including blackjacks or DDs (massively productive on big bets) would het you $4k.....since the odds of losing 6 or more are over 200-1, that means you will likely run into that streak only once....using the martingale system ud lose $3100 (using a spread of 1-6)....

by the odds it looks like a winner, but through my own experience and hearing about other players experience it hasnt really worked (except for hitn run style playing)....

course when i relied on it half a year ago my BR wasnt nearly big enough, one bad night wiped me out (nearly)...

used it tonight to get 1k tho, took me 20mins....took me longer to get there and back...

sometimes you'll never hit that losing streak, other nights itll find you right away, and knowing the casinos luck itll happen more than it should

totally disagree...

often i cant be bothered to spend much time in the casino and go for hitn run style playing....playing black chip using martingale sys only going for 1k, win 500 have a break, same again....

how can you say that isnt profitable???it definately is, i have the money to prove it (even tho i dont win most of my money this way)....

sure a bad night comes and if i happen to be using this system i will lose a few K, big deal the wins far out number the losses....

again i dont do this much, and when i do its for modest amounts (i never use just BS)....

progressions (not many), BS and smart play hand in hand with shorterm will see nice profits....

i only use hitn run martingale, and use d'alembert for the longer sessions.....it works for ME and i have the money to back me up....

only from my experience, most others that have used progressions havent got anywhere

this is my only income, but prob dont put in the hours to considered 'full-time'.....

my wins are always bigger than my losses....my max losses are never greater than 1k, and my wins are always at least 1k....

i win alot more sessions than i lose...=making a sh!tload....

however i do agree that quitting while your ahead can keep you in front....your just cutting out the negative fluctuation that session...

using only BS i wouldnt expect you to make much money of it, unless you are willing to risk serious $$$....

I recently came to learn that some people I know (who are very strong advantage players) have been posting pro-progression posts here just to incite and disrupt this board. I have certainly taken the bait several times, as they let me know first hand.

Pro-progression posts are not what they seem, and this one has all the markings of true trolling.

This is yet another among many reasons I highly advocate busting all progression posts.

--Eliot

Eliot,

I thought my post was OK. I did not know my result had been determined by simulation before. Also, I'm working on some multiple-hand single and double deck progression strategies combined with cardcounting as cover technique. I have not posted this stuff because I have not obtained satisfactory win rates yet.

Bert

...you seem to have what it takes! :)

td

come on....we all know that progression NORMALLY doesnt work, but it still doesnt give you the right to put them (& me) down....

progression is normally part of the learning curve, and many of these players will later on become counters...

this is a BJ board not a counters board...since you dont like progression then dont read the posts....

instead of insulting other people just learn to shut up and keep things to yourself

I'm strictly a basic strategy player (for now). What are some of the better Indian casinos in Upland or San Diego to play at?

Since I'll be going with a bunch of friends, I'm looking for something with a more fun, vegas-type vibe versus playable games.

1. Progressions NEVER gain an advantage.
2. It is not only our right to criticize them, but our DUTY to "put them down".
3. Contrary to your belief, BJ21 is a board about "Advantage Play". Progressions don't meet the description. That is why we spend time talking about counting, promotions, dealer errors, cover, comps, Video Poker, and other valid forms of advantage play.

determines your progression and not the progression itself trying to make an advantage, progressions can and do work without counting. The real argument is whether one is playing with an advantage. The advantage can't be found in a progression in isolation. Are you math- happy now?

Streak,
Two questions, please.
1. What's the source of the data? Did you compile it, or pull it from an existing source?
2. Do the "runs" represent "Hands Won" or "Bets Won"?
3. Are stats available for other games?
Thanks in advance for your response.
Walter

As long as your advantage determines your progression and not the progression itself trying to make an advantage, progressions can and do work without counting. The real argument is whether one is playing with an advantage.

If you are not counting, how do you determine your advantage? I know there are other methods of determining times when a player has the advantage, but I can't see how any of those methods would work with a progression. If you aren't counting, how are you finding the advantage?

are you so highly intolerant? Wong had a Progressions Page on this site. Readers have an interest in progressions. As a progression bettor, I have an interest in card counting, and there's no reason to assume that some card counters may have an interest in progressions. Do you feel that banning progression posts will eliminate the existance of progression betting? It won't.
Cheers!
Walter

is to discuss Advantage Play in blackjack and other Casino Games. Progressions do not yeild an advantage. (If they did I would be the first one to never count cards again). Why not start your own Yahoo group devoted to 21st Century BJ and Progressions. After all there are websites devoted to Dice Setting and all sorts of controversial methods.