bankroll question
With a 10,000 dollar BR Is a 1-6 betting spread from 25 to 150 enough to beat a 6 deck AC game? Is that to high of an RoR to be acceptable? or do I need a larger spread? Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks
With a 10,000 dollar BR Is a 1-6 betting spread from 25 to 150 enough to beat a 6 deck AC game? Is that to high of an RoR to be acceptable? or do I need a larger spread? Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks
You need to read and study BJA3. Page 23 and pages 122-128. Then decide if you can take the fluctuations mentally, emotionally and monetarily.
Skunkfunk9,
I used CVCX to simulate a 6D, S17, DAS game with 4.21/6 penetration (93 cards cut off: this is the game at, say, Hilton) for a heads-up HiLo player spreading 1:6 in quarters ($25 at 0 & below, $75 at +1, $150 at +2 and up) to a $10K BR, and found that you're facing an incredible 50.6% Risk of Ruin. Your Win Rate is $20.80/hr, with a Std. Dev. of $782.04/hr.
If instead you play ONLY at TC's of +1 and up:
Flat-betting $74, your Win Rate will be $19.56/hr with a Std. Dev. of $442.52/hr and a RoR of 13.5%.
Betting $63 at +1 & +2, and $126 at +3 and up, your Win Rate will be $26.67/hr with a Std. Dev. of $516.43/hr and a RoR of 13.5%.
Betting $55 at +1 & +2, $110 at +3, and $165 at +4 and up, your Win Rate will be $29.38/hr with a Std. Dev. of $540.90/hr and a RoR of 13.4%.
Wonging seems the way to go for you!
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Ok, so I was reading Blackjack, play like the pros, and they have a betting scheme for a 10,000 BR. It says to bet 1 less green for every TC. IE true count of 3 bet 2 green. If I max out at 250 at a TC of plus 10, this is more conservative than what the book says. (It max's out at 325) It says this will give me a 5% ROR. Is this incorrect then? So how do I have to bet to have a 5% RoR. I'm not a mathematician, or I'd figure it out for myself. Thanks.
Skunkfunk9,
I have Kevin Blackwood's Play Blackjack Like the Pros, but I could not find the betting scheme to which you referred. Did you perhaps mean a different book? And would you please post a page reference?
At any rate, again considering the same 6D, S17, DAS game with 4.21/6 penetration, if you use a 1:10 spread, you can bet $0 at TC's of 0 & below, $20 at +1, $40 at +2, $80 at +3, $100 at +4, $120 at +5, $160 at +6, $180 at +7, and $200 at +8 and above, to have a 5.1% RoR (for a $10K BR), a win rate of $22.08/hr, and a std. dev. of $386.06/hr. You'll play 26.4% of the rounds seen. If you play the same schedule but in quarters (multiply each bet amount by 1.25), your RoR will swell to 9.3%, with a WR of $27.61/hr & a SD of $482.57/hr.
Now if you could find a better game, say with pen of 4.81/6 (62 cards cut off), then betting the TC in quarters will give a RoR of 4.9% (for a $10K BR), a WR of $36.20/hr, and a SD of $490.37/hr. Perhaps the book you were reading was for a game with better pen than the typical AC 6Der?
Finally, for the 4.21/6 game, if you want to play all and spread 1:10 while keeping your RoR below 5%, bet $5 for TC's of 0 & below, $15 at +1, $40 at +2, and $50 at +3 and above. This will give a 3.3% RoR (for a $10K BR), a WR of $8.11/hr, and a SD of $218.34/hr. If you raise your min bet to $6, your RoR will be well over 5%.
Note also that all of these results are for 6D S17 games: if you play H17 and/or 8D games, then you'll have to reduce your bets to maintain a 5% RoR.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
"I have Kevin Blackwood's Play Blackjack Like the Pros, but I could not find the betting scheme to which you referred. Did you perhaps mean a different book?"
Believe it or not, there is another book: "Blackjack: Play Like the Pros," by John Bukofsky.
Then there's that other book, which came before both of the above, whose subtitle is: "Playing the Pros' Way"! :-)
Damn confusing, I'd say!
Don
The book I was reading was the one by John Bukofsky. I don't have a page number as I was reading it at Barnes and Noble. Sorry.
What if I play the AC games with 4.21/ 6,with a 10K BR, playing entire shoes (even negative counts, with all of the strategy variations, betting TC -1 in green and 25 on TC=0 and below? Playing the strategy variations should decrease RoR right? Would this be acceptable in terms of ruin, or is it assumed already that the strategy variations are being played?
Skunkfunk9,
I used HiLo with complete indexes when I generated the results. If you play without indexes, then your win rate will be lower.
I checked John Bukofsky's Blackjack Play Like the Pros (thanks, Don, for reminding me about the title of this book). Table 9.3 on page 121 provides this betting schedule for a $10K BR and a 5% RoR:
.
TC Bet
<3 25
+3 40
+4 60
+5 90
+6 125
+7 160
+8 190
+9 210
+10 260
+11 300
+12 325
