Bankroll Advice?

I was wondering if someone could tell me if it is very likely I will go bankrupt according to the following criteria.

My total bankroll is $1000. I would like this to last several 2 hour trips, let's say 12 total hours of playing.

The minimum bet at the casino is $10. The conditions are relatively favorable: 8 decks, DAS, S17, double down on any 2 cards, late surrender. 2-deck cut. Rarely any casino heat.

I use Wong's hi-lo counting method. I am willing to walk away whenever a count turns -1 or greater, and I only jump into a game when there is a +1 count or greater.

Is the minimum bet too large a portion of my total bank roll (1%) to likely make this a profitable venture? Any advice anyone can give would be greatly appreciated.

Given the minimum, you only have 100 units and, if you spread 10x1, you're looking to get wiped out if your losing hands at max bet exceed your winning hands by 10.

At 8 decks cut 2.0, you HAVE to backcount because you'd never last long slogging along for the inevitably long periods of time that you're at a disadvantage given the $10 min. With all due respect for your characterization of this as "relatively favorable conditions" (which it well may be for the geographic area it's located in), I would characterize it as poor and definately worth double-checking around town for a lower minimum to make the TCs of -1 to +1 a little less punitive to play through.

Bottom line, as your spreads increase, so does you're ROR. 10x1 spreads or better are likely very achievable since there's likely little heat on a game like this but 10x1 has your next sticking WAAAYYY out there given your bankroll. You won't get many good edges with such a game... even a 6D game cut at 2.0 gives me a 5% edge only very, very rarely (I need a +18 TC with AOII to get a 5% edge).

If losing your $1000 would be any kind of hardship at all, I'd limit my play ONLY to wonging in at +1 or better and save any wagers greater than $50 for TCs that give you an edge of at least 2.5% or better, which will be rare in an 8D, 2.0 game.

Seasons best, Chris,

Spokanimal

On page 178-179 (I think), there is an optimal strategy for wonging shoes. The game listed is 6D S17, 4.5/6 pen, and the advice is to flat bet $132 (for a $10,000 bank - which would translate to $10 for your bank) at a TC of 2 or greater. This results in a ROR of 13.5%.

You can ask Don Schlesinger (the author) for a more tailored approach to your game by posting at AdvantagePlayer.com. He doesn't post here.

You should also buy Blackjack Attack if you have not already done so. I realize that you are probably just starting out, but this book is invaluable. It is a literal treasure trove of information, and retails for around $15. Among other things, there is a ton of statistical info on optimal bet sizing / approaches and risk of ruin (lifetime and trip).

I have some bad news, but I'll then cheer you up with the good news.

"Is the minimum bet too large a portion of my total bank roll (1%) to likely make this a profitable venture? Any advice anyone can give would be greatly appreciated."

Even though you plan on wonging out at -1 tc's, mathematics says this wont be a profitable adventure. Flat betting $10,your expected to lose about $35 to $40 for the trip (I figured only 50-60 hands/hour due to wonging). The good news is you have vitrually no chance of losing your entire bankroll after 12 hours of action and with a little luck you might walk a winner.

TG

All 3 of you gave great advice, thanks for your time. If I were to play and only play at +1 or +2 or better, what kind of bet spread should I use to avoid a high risk of ruin? I understand I need to bet high during favorable conditions to tilt the edge in my favor, but if I set a cap to my big bet, I believe I lower the risk of ruin. In a $10 minimum bet, $1000 bankroll, let's say I limit my bets between 10 and 30 dollars. Is this even approaching a profitable venture, and if not, by how much am I lowering my risk of ruin by setting a $30 (or 25, 40, 50) bet?

I will check out Schlesinger's book for an answer, but if anyone can throw out an estimate in the meanwhile, that'd be great...

I am looking for another BJ-playing program.
Have Casino Verite' and Sage,I have Smartcards too,very new,
but didn't find a playing program there,is there any??
Are there any other programs to buy or for free.
An answer appriciated Rainer

Playing only positive shoes will be a profitable adventure, but in my opinion it's an impractacal and desperate solution to winning. You may soon see why I feel this way.

Using a 1-3($10-$30) spread while never playing negative shoes should yield about $5 an hour if you play very well.

TC 1+2, bet 1 unit
TC 3, bet 2 units
TC 4+, bet 3 units

You still have about a 1 out of 3 chance of eventually losing the bank of $1000.

TG

My advice would be to wong in exclusively and only play at +2 TC or higher shoes. I would suggest flat betting $10 (1% of BR) at all counts +2 or greater. This should limit your risk of ruin to an acceptable level (5-10%).

As TG suggests, it is difficult to use a true wonging strategy (wong in and wong out so that you only play shoes with a +2 or greater TC). You need decent backcounting conditions (2-4 other players at each table, some spectators lurking around, etc). Depending on your location, it may or may not be easy to find these types of conditions. Also, you need to develop a bit of a thick skin (for ploppies that complain when you jump into a shoe) and not get too paranoid if a PC looks your way. If you are betting $10 a hand, you should not get any heat.

...I pretty much started with hi-lo in '92 with flash cards for practice and switched to AOII shortly after Bryce's first edition. I think the best training is 6D with low stakes because there are a lot of dynamics to the game that a computer omits. I've trained 2 other counters using SAGE tuned for AOII but only early in their tenure.

As Coug Fan mentions, BJA is the book you want to read and re-read once you've read a couple of primers.. it fills in as many gaps as can be filled for someone like me who truly wants to gain a deep understanding of the math but doesn't place a high priority on sinking a lot of time into sims.

A good example was the bit about how little time a pro spends at his career-winnings "high-water" mark... it's a surprisingly small percentage of his playing time. Off hand figures like that add so much dimension to one's understanding of the game because, in that particular case, it added so much realism to the savages of standard deviation.

Spok