Back counting

Was at a boat in the south this past weekend. Crowded of course. First time back in a while.

Table limit everywhere was green (over the min bet for my bankroll) but I had already lost the obligatory 100 bucks in the slots when you take your spouse (that's all she plays) and thought I'd just get that back (and hers).

Didn't want to play-all but did first go 'round. Doubled on a 9-2 (TC+4) with 3 greens to end the shoe, got the J. Stood up with 2 extra greens after being down 4. Dealer colored me up - 4 blacks 2 greens and some red. Walked around trying to explain to the missus why I shouldn't be playing in these circumstances. Still wanted to recoup and cover room/gas/food though.

Stopped behind a table with 2 players as the dealer rolled and crossed my arms. About half-way in I had it at +7 (not TC) and dropped a black on 2 spots. Hit a BJ and a Q-9. Dealer busted.

Was there really enough advantage to make this bet and how often can someone get away with it? We cashed out and left anyway.

Thanks BT. I really knew it was too much but I guess I let the gambler have the reigns for a minute. I wouldn't have put it out there if I couldn't afford to give it away though. Just luck on such a short run. Should have waited for the last deck before the shuffle but evidently I wasn't that concerned.

I asked because as I look back over my few years of mediocre counting, it seems the trips I've made that were successful 80% of the time were when I watch tables without "No mid-shoe entry" signs and drop in on good counts. I haven't kept enough data to get an accurate number, but it easily swamps play-all - for me - as it should. Question is, do the PBs (generally) even catch these plays that often? I guess it would become impractical to adapt this method for a weekly player, but what about once every 3 or 4 months?

Dean

Try not to look like you're wonging; lots of people observe a game for several hands before deciding if the dealer is 'hot' or 'cold', but nobody stares intently as 4 decks go by.

I understand that point, but isn't it still tough to try and look like you're not wonging when you can only wong in at TC of 1 or 2 or more? (In shoe games it usually takes longer than just a "glance at a few hands" [like a non-wonger would do] before you can put anything out).

2) You were 1/2 way through the shoe with a runnning count of +7.

This means your true count was +3, and you bet $200.

Actually, assuming a six-deck shoe, the true count was 2.33. In an eight-deck shoe the true count would be 1.75.

For an RC of 7 to yield a TC of 3 halfway through, the shoe would have to contain 4.67 decks. Unless I'm missing something.