Attention: Jersey Nemeses

Attention: Jersey Nemeses

I like to provide free advertisemenets for you guys (at least for the 4 playable Jersey Casinos (Hilton, Plaza, Taj, & Borg.) The tradeoffs are:

1) The ads will at least start some healthy competitions among the remaining 10 unplayable Jersey casinos,

2) The 4 playable Jersey Casinos will lure in more customers and thereby make more profits from the AP-Wannabies because of the free ads here, and

3) In return, the real APs will share those profits from the playable casinos, assuming the ads will increase the playable casinos from 4 to 7 (Hilton, Plaza, Taj, & Borg.) plus (Harrah's, Caesars & Resorts).

OK, I'm done with the Jersey Nemeses.

Now, attention: APs:

You should play at the following 4 Jersey casinos:

1) Borg, which offers 55 six-deckers with decent pen,

2) Plaza, which offers 32 six-deckers with decent pen,

3) Taj, which offers 31 six-deckers with decent pen, and

4) Hilton, which offers 13 six-deckers with the best pen, but be aware of the nasty Game Protectors.

By the way, Harrah's recently took away the six-deckers (with $25 min) from its highroller pit. Now all its 6deckers are $100 minimum. Shame on you Harrah's. You just drive away lots of AP-Wannabies to your competitors!

Congrats to the Plaza's Zman-like Guru for a job almost well done. It seems you get more AP-Wannabies in your casino than ever before! I see that the top management is Zman-like, so is its dealers... who are much player-friendly now. It's my pleasure to report that Plaza's pen improves just a little bit from the last report. I will give Plaza a little more time to catch up with Hilton's pen.

Hey Resorts Casino, you were one of the best casinos to play with circa a few decades ago. Come on now. You can beat the above playable casinos if you just copy-cat their games & throw in a few goodies such as late surrenders.

Hey my fellow APs, what would you like to tell our Jersey nemeses in addition to the above? Now it's your golden opportunities. Speak up.

I forget to report another lucky-seat phenomenon in the above post. Revereman had previously reported one of the similar phenomena. However, this one is a little more dramatic. Circa 4:30pm at Plaza, a few Asian guys fought over the lucky 1st-base-seat. As soon as the winner cashed in & departed for his 5pm bus, the bigger guy muscled his way into the seat over the smaller guy. As luck had it that the new 1st baser kept receiving good cards just like the previous winner...Oh boy, only if Plaza allows the Foxwoods-style-backlining, I would backline the lucky 1st-baser with "ORANGES"(tongue-in-cheek).

The bottomline: You can't argue with short-term success as in the above phenomenon. However, in average (say a billion hands), there's no such thing as predetermined-lucky-seat. Speaking of average, here's a joke about a mathguy's averaging.

Averaging the temperatures of 2 bathtubs of water:

There are 2 bathtubs of water in the math lab. The right baby bathtub was heated up to 109 degrees, and the left baby bathtub was cooled to 31 degrees

Mathguy to student: "Who can tell me what's the average temperature of the water?"

Student: "70 degrees, Sir."
Then he remarks: ""Sir, with the 70 degrees in the bathtub-average-temperature, the 2 babies in the 2 bathtubs feel nice & comfy, right?"

Mathguy: "No Sonny, the babies would die!"

With that joke in mind, we can see how the paradox exists between

the "actual outcome, say the Plaza case" (i.e., lucky seat)

vs

"averaged outcome, say a billion hands" (no-such-thing-as-lucky seat).

> Then he remarks: ""Sir, with the 70 degrees in the bathtub-average-temperature,
> the 2 babies in the 2 bathtubs feel nice & comfy, right?"
>
> Mathguy: "No Sonny, the babies would die!"

What a silly joke! Anyone who understands math knows that the mean is never enough information to make a decision from. That is why we also rely on standard deviation. Knowing those two figures would have been enough information to realize that the bathtubs were not suitable for babies. The above joke just goes to show you: don�t make a decision until you have all the information. To make a decision without enough information is a ploppy mistake, just like making hunches based on short-term results.

> With that joke in mind, we can see how the paradox exists between
> the "actual outcome, say the Plaza case" (i.e., lucky seat) vs
> "averaged outcome, say a billion hands" (no-such-thing-as-lucky
> seat).

Actually, there is no paradox. It is just the difference between short-term variance and long-term variance. We generally measure short-term variance with standard deviation and long-term variance with risk-of-ruin. Both of the situations above can be quantified in these terms so there are no real surprises or �lucky streaks� that we don�t already expect. Knowing how large, how long, and how often these streaks will occur is the main benefit of understanding the math behind the game.

Here�s an esoteric thought for you: Is it still considered an unlucky streak if you already predicted it?

-"Baby-Killing" Sonny-

First of all, a clarification is in order about my "silly" joke. The Sonny in the joke is not the poster Sonny. I should have used "Youngster" instead of "Sonny" so that there's no misunderstanind. Anyway, I expect some replies from Jersey compadres in regard to the playable Jersey casinos. It's irony that voodoo subjects (i.e., lucky seat) attract more interests than non-voodoo ones. However, I do appreciate the real Sonny's interesting reply:

"Actually, there is no paradox. It is just the difference between short-term variance and long-term variance. We generally measure short-term variance with standard deviation and long-term variance with risk-of-ruin. Both of the situations above can be quantified in these terms so there are no real surprises or �lucky streaks� that we don�t already expect. Knowing how large, how long, and how often these streaks will occur is the main benefit of understanding the math behind the game. "

About the Std Dee...

So... should we say... the standard deviation of that exactly same happening in Plaza again... is this:

Plus or minus 10 billions-to-1 chances that same original 1st baser would find the same lucky seat during the next trip back at Plaza...?

About the RoR...

So...should we say... the risk of ruin is 100% against the same 1st baser who gambles his money away soly based on finding lucky seats...within a few decades at Plaza?

"Here�s an esoteric thought for you: Is it still considered an unlucky streak if you already predicted it? "

Yes or no. It all depends if a mortal can really predict the bad streak or bad luck. Most of us do agree that the bad streak exists. The problem is...only the lady bad-luck knows whom she will visit next. However, assuming that bad streak was predictable, I would say your question is a paradoxical one. How can a predictable unlucky streak occur when you can surely avoid it? It's almost like the time travel paradox...there will be no travel machine (T.M.) if you can travel back in time to kill the T.M. inventor.

Speaking of predicting stuff, I get a joke about a fortuneteller...

The sign at the fortuneteller's door reads:

Dear Honorable Customers,

Our know-all Master Ding-Ho got run over by a cab at NYC Time Square a few day ago.

His funeral will be held whenever his wife can choose a lucky burial date according to the feng-shui tradition...

So, if the bad luck were predictable, then the Master would not get run over by a cab, right?

Why bust my post? With several hundred casino readers/gamblers in this site, we may able to help cops to find the MIA girl who was last seen in Caesars casino. Please let it stand. Perhaps when your daughter/son may be MIA one day, don't you wish you will get helps from as much people as possible?

BJ21.com Free Message Board

Brianna Maitland (@Caesars) & Imette St. Guillen

Posted By: S
Date: 17 Mar 06, 7:20 am

In Response To: S were u with her? (Mr. Lee)

ML, no to your question.

Perhaps there may be a case-connection between Brianna Maitland & Imette St. Guillen? Just like Imette, Brianna might trust & hang out with the wrong guy & got herself MIA/killed?

I have run into lots of girls on the Boardwalk. Unfortunately, I did not run into her in AC, but I saw Caesars' footage about Brianna. She was with a guy in there playing bj...You should see the close up videos of Brianna...If they were ever ratholing, Caesars would catch them red handed. Caesars probably thought they were up to something no good. That's why it had that special videos kept in file.

If Brianna's guy is a sex offender, I think the cops will be probably able to find the sex-sicko from this Wildcard's sex-offender link:

http://www.familywatchdog.us/

I hope cops will catch that bad guy who had killed Imette or Brianna.

Brianna Maitland, MIA 3/19/2004
If you see her in a casino, call cops.