Advice

Hi all

Now that I've been posting a few days, I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by the number of friendly and rational people here vs. the usual collection of great unwashed at most other message boards across the Internet. Kudos. It's a pleasure to post here.

Anyway, I'm nearing the end of a 5-night trip in Atlantic City (Borgata). I brought a $2k bankroll for this trip and unfortunately I'm down about $1200; this is the most I've been down in over 6 months on a per-trip basis, and also the most I've been down overall.

It's not a big deal to me; if you've read my other posts you know I'm here to have fun and I create my bankrolls with the assumption that I'll lose them all and it won't affect my lifestyle in any way. However, it's been a bit of a downer just because it hasn't happened in so long; I guess them's the fluctations though!

So I was wondering what y'all would do in my situation. I know I'll probably get an answer AFTER I end up doing whatever I'm going to do (I plan to head down there in about 3-4 hours), but it will be educational just to read your opinions.

Option 1 (my usual strategy): Find a $5 or $10 table, play as I normally do @ a $5 unit bet spreading 1-16 if I can (generally factors preclude this kind of spread on a Saturday night -- I'm not really worried about heat at this level, but it's rare that TC goes so high on a 6-deck shoe). Hope that I might earn $100 or $200 for the night, and be comfortable in the likelihood that I will probably only lose the same amount, though I'll be prepared to lose another $500 or so.

Option 2: Find a $25 table, play a $25 unit bet spreading 1-16 ("Hail Mary" bankroll) if I can. Similar to the above, but this way I don't lose my nerve and play a $5 bet after losing an $80 bet just because I'm nervous or whatever (obviously I try to avoid this behavior as consciously as possible, but again I'm an amateur who's only been doing this for about 6 months and sometimes my emotions get the best of me). Furthermore, since the TC rarely allows me to spread to more than 4 units, the fluctuations make it more likely that I will win a larger amount.

I'm leaning to option 2, since the "reward" (regaining a decent proportion of my bankroll) is much more valuable subjectively to me than the associated "risk" (losing the rest of it).

Other opinions and discussion are very welcome.

Thanks!
-BB

In reading your post you mentioned that after losing a max, $80 bet you at times lose your nerve and go back to $5 still with the count high. You need to get past that and if that next hand should be a max bet, you do it again. Sure there will be times you lose both or more bets but there will also be times when you win, get a blackjack or a successful double. Sitting at a crowded 6D table, playing all those negative counts and then minimum betting after waiting and losing a big bet, is just not a way to make money. I suggest your just using your regular bet schedule and stick to doing what you know you should do.

A better approach and one you might even use on the $25 tables is just to wong. You play no hands that have a true count of under +2 and at that count you bet $25 and if it goes up you raise your bets to $50 or $75, basically keeping your max bet the same while never playing a single hand where you do not have an advantage.

In your experience (others are welcome to contribute too), when does wonging in at +2 or higher get you attention at a red chip table if you're throwing down green? It seems to me like it would be a bit obvious, especially at the times I'm planning on playing (after last night my sleep schedule is essentially reversed; I'm planning on heading down around 3:30 or 4AM my time). But if not, I'm certainly willing to try... of course if I DO get heat I happen to be staying at the Borgata hotel (which I know is a bad move if I'm expecting heat but I have never played at the levels where I thought it would be an issue) and I'm a bit concerned about whether I would, well, be able to come up and get my shit and leave.

Again, I'm an amateur and I appreciate everyone's patience.

I was also thinking about maybe sitting at my usual $5 or $10 table and spreading to 2 hands (if I went down late enough that I could) if the TC hit +2.

Thanks for your thoughts; I appreciate all of your viewpoints.

You suggested wonging on the $25 tables, didn't see that. Thanks.

Don't worry about playing green on $5 or $10 tables. Once, at the Borg, I wonged into a game with a black chip, and bet anywhere from 1 to 4 blacks during that shoe. It wasn't until several hands later I noticed everyone else betting red and finally noted I was at their $5 table :.) I did leave that table when the shoe ended.

The problem with backcounting a lower limit table is "your" seat might get snapped up just when you're ready to sit down. The Borg has been unusually crowded, with fewer tables open, the last several weeks.

Indeed -- Like I said I've been here at least a weekend a month (average 5 days) and this past Saturday night was more crowded than I've EVER seen it!

I kind of want to appeal to more educated minds than mine to ask about what that means RE: the economy. E.g., were Borgata players always of a somewhat higher-income lifestyle, and as such, were less impacted by this particular junk? Do they just attract significantly more high rollers than all other AC properties? Is this just something I've been imagining?

Who knows... Not I. I'm just hoping I get a better fluctuation next trip...

Not saying it's right, but I would go to the $25 table, spread 6 or 8 to 1 according to the count and wong out in negative counts. A key component here is that you don't mind losing the $800 you still have left.

I was in AC early last week and it was the most crowded I've seen it since the summer.

Could be spillover from a long Prez Day weekend.
Could be everyone is so depressed and they expect a bailout, so what the hell...

One thing I noticed at the Borg was they had much fewer tables open than usual. The whole midshoe entry pit you first see when you walk in from the retail hallway was closed, except for 2 tables. The pit near the poker room was completely closed (now 8D when open.)