i think i am the most unlucky player ever to play the game of blackjack. according to my calculations i am currently 5.2 standard deviations to the left. is there anyone else out there that has had really bad luck worse that this? Moose, please tell me you have worse luck than me?
Since it happened to you it is twice as likely to not happen to me! Yippee!!
Thanks for being the one in a million! Now I can sleep at night.
Casinos have developed shuffling, clumping, and cheating techniques to neutralize card counters and take their money. Card counting assumes a random deck but the deck is no longer random.
One of two things happened... You are extraordinarily unlucky, or...
You, like the vast majority of counters, have not yet attained a positive ev. I don't mean this in a snitty way, but take a close look at your game. Are you playing 6-deck, or 2? What is the disadvantage off the top? What spread are you using? How often are you making mistakes?
When I started off, I got down several thousand dollars over the period of several months. Even counting "perfectly", I had a negative EV, though I didn't know it. I was playing at crowded tables, with poor pen, and I was using a small spread.
What playing conditions do you have, and what do you think your advantage is?
What is a bad ticket?
Dear Unlucky,
I guess no one is going to tell you so I might as well, My first assessment is (In order of Probabilitys) that:
1) You didn't calculate the Standard Deviations properly iff (if and only if) this is not true "THEN".
2) The post contains intentional non truths for some psychological reasons,"OR"
3)You do not understand how to read the BS chart
4) "OR" do not understand how to implement the strategy
5)"OR" are deviating from the strategy on hunches (gambling).
6) "OR" are being deceived (cheated) by the casino.
7) "OR" are experiencing the extremes of probability.
Notice the conclusion you drew was one of the last choices, Understand that this is not a scientific assessment only a practical theorem of the case in question.
anytime you are left of two standard deviations something is amiss. If it is an error of analysis, then it is easy to correct. I suspect since you are talking about real money that it is a problem with your play.
Beginning counters often overestimate their advantage. This I know from my own experience. I played subpar games thinking I had a positive EV with my counting skills. I thought crowded conditions and truncated bet spreads would not seriously impact my EV. I played when tired and with diminished skills. It is no surprise that I lost a lot before I learned that my early successes had more to do with luck than my abilities. I made unneccesary cover plays and accelerated betting ramps. If there was a mistake to be made, I made it. Fortunately before I lost my entire bankroll due to unfounded optimism, I had the good advice of fellow players to re-evaluate my game. With more practice drills and better software I have learned to play tighter within the EV and ROR while pruning the errors. It is not impossible to be so far to the left of your EV, but it is more likely that the cumulative effects of playing with a negative EV are tearing the lining out of your blakjack wallet. If you truly want to improve your play it would be better to let us know more specifically your situation.
The reference to Moose was amusing, though. I think the world's longest losing streak attributable to an 'advantage player' belongs to Frank. He hasn't had a winning shoe since 1957 when he discovered the 'flaw.' :-)
I feel blessed that I recognized that I was very lucky up until 67 in games of chance. The Flaw discovered me last football season-disclosing the why of some part of "standard deviation". That
term is just an excuse for losing to the flaw. Untill recently, all I had was a bunch of parts. Now I may have found a way they fit together. In gaming, I have lived on both edges of the curve for long
periods. Logic says that math does not "control chance."
Sorry Frank.... I forgot that you once were the blessed child of Lady Luck before she left you, never to return. Perhaps as the parts fit together you would enlighten us as to how we may harness a force that logic tells us is stronger than math. Thanks for the correction, I apologize if it seemed I was attributing you with being not only older than dirt, but also without redemption when it comes to luck. Good cards to ya...
scobee
.. so you can rest assured that this brand new handle never seen before handle is not me.
M.
Lady luck is still with me, sits on my left shoulder and handles the
rest of my life. Problem is her twin sister Miss Fortune(won a contest)moved in on my right shoulder and works all the gaming luck.
Sure could use some good tickets. I hope they never switch shoulders.
hey Don.....if it's really you, sitting there bored with your normal nightlife, checking in and "getting down/mingling" with us peons trying to hack out a few bucks an hour more than we're normally capable of, just WHAT are you saying/implying???...is there some "new" way the shoe game is being manipulated, so that some of us who have been playing for 20 years, and who've kept somewhat accurate records, ARE experiencing just what you're referring to...why have the high rollers not also spoken up as to be somewhat suspicious that they have also had some unexplainably wierd deviations over the past two years...??? Are they just being stoic and attributing the results to the fact that SD has finally caught up with them, as happened to the poor fellow who started this loop with his few thousand dollar loss(not that his loss hurt him any less than my $90,000,275 hours, loss($100-$800/800,mostly 6D,78-82% PEN, DAS, LS(33% time),22 years experience, worldwide play. My sympathy to "5 SD to the left."
