After several trips to my local casino, I befriended a few regulars who are willing to let me side bet with them. I asked the floor personnel and they are ok with that. Given that I have $1,000 and use K-O count. I will only bet, $100 per hand, when the running count is +4 or more. If the running count is less than +4, I will just stay out. What is my chance of doubling my money?
Thanks.
Inquiry,
According to CVCX, for a Preferred KO player with a $1,000 bankroll who flat-bets $100 at +4 and above on a 2D, S17, DA2, DAS, RSA game with a total of 3 players faces a Risk of Ruin of 58.8%. This means that your chance of reaching $2,000 is, necessarily, less than 41.2%. On the plus side, you'll enjoy a 3.452% IBA with a win rate of $44.52/hr. You'll play 12.9% of the rounds, thanks to the good pen.
If you instead lower your bet to $25, your WR will of course be one-fourth the previous value, or $11.13/hr, but your RoR will plunge to 12.0%.
By the way, these numbers assume the hands will be played using the KO-P strategy: if the "main" bettor's strategy differs, your results will also vary.
Finally, I seriously doubt the pit will really allow you to do this for very long without taking countemeasures.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Dog Hand,
Thank so much for the information. So difficult in taking a few crumps from the casino! Still possible for a regular guy or just an illusion?
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours!
Thanks Flash!
Just bet the full $1,000 on the pass line at craps. Quit after the decision, win or lose. You would have better than a 41.2% chance of winning the roll (and doubling your money).
You will not have a 41.2% chance.
Your chance of winning your Pass Line bet is precisely 99.3%
I said that he could improve his chances of doubling the money to greater than 41.2%. I'm assuming your number was a typo, but do you disagree with me that he would have a better than 41.2% chance of doubling the $1,000 by betting on one roll at the craps table?
If so, please explain your logic.
My corrected figure is 49.3%
If he bets everything on the pass line and quits after that bet is resolved,
he will have won, doubling his money 49.3% of the time, and lose 50.7% of the time.
if ONE (1) roll is involved there is no Risk-of-Ruin computation needed. The Risk is the chances of losing that one (1) bet. Simple.
One random bet on the Pass Line wins 49.3% of the time and loses 50.7% of the time.
and I also think we agree, so no big deal.
You said above that he would have a 41.2% chance of doubling his money before going broke by playing BJ. I said that he could improve his chances of doubling the $1,000 by betting the full $1,000 on one decision at the craps table.
You have said that he has a 49.3% chance of success by betting craps. 49.3% is greater than 41.2%, so clearly you are agreeing that his chances are better by betting craps instead of BJ.
The 41.2% figure was equated with betting $100 at a time.
The 49.3% figure relates only to ONE roll at a craps table pass line.
So I do not disagree.
There is obviously nothing wrong with Cougfan's argument but the question remains how betting all at once in a -1.4%EV game like Craps can give a better chance of survival than betting in portions at BJ with roughly +2%EV.
I wonder why nobody questioned the 58.8% ruin figure for BJ.It seems illogical because even if you bet all at once the chance of losing is much closer to 50%.
Statistically, on average, Inquiry must win 2 dollars with every bet he places. I don't see how this equation can be met if he loses his 1000 dollars in 58.8% of the cases and doubles them in only 41.2% of the cases. Who can resolve the mistery?
Francis Salmon
"According to CVCX, for a Preferred KO player with a $1,000 bankroll who flat-bets $100 at +4 and above on a 2D, S17, DA2, DAS, RSA game with a total of 3 players faces a Risk of Ruin of 58.8%. This means that your chance of reaching $2,000 is, necessarily, less than 41.2%."
No, that's not correct. The ROR that you quote, above, is if you play forever. It is NOT ROR before doubling bank. You have just over a 50% chance of doubling the bank, after which point, you might still easily be wiped out. In this case, ROR + chance of doubling > 100%.
Said another way, your chance of doubling is > 50%, after which, if you quit, you can't be ruined. So, your ROR under this scenario is slightly less than 50%
Clear?
Don
