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both are bad ideas

Posted By: DD'
Date: 25 Dec 01, 8:10 am

In Response To: Parlay (John)

Don't start big and go down, don't start small and go up. Figure an acceptable risk of trip ruin for the number of hours you plan on putting in for a given bet level. Then maintain those bets through the entire trip. Continue these bet sizes on future trips until you have a real bankroll to which you can size your bets and are bringing only a portion of it as a trip bank. You don't size bets to a trip bank. You size your trip bank to the bet sizes that were already determined based on your total bank based on the expected length of your trip.

note: even absolute optimal resizing of bets to the Kelly criterion increases the long run index 4X. What you are doing is likely far worse. You will be playing for years and years and feel like you are just spinning your wheels. Try to really win your money. Don't try to ride the wave of variance. It doesn't work.

Messages In This Thread

• Betting Levels -- John -- 24 Dec 01, 9:47 am
  • Another phase in development -- Ferdinand -- 24 Dec 01, 10:58 am
    • John's betting levels -- Jingo -- 24 Dec 01, 2:45 pm
      • Knowing the math is one thing... -- Ferdinand -- 24 Dec 01, 5:51 pm
        • Seems like for you-the Math FOG has lifted. (nt) -- Frank Stanton -- 24 Dec 01, 7:03 pm
          • Did you say something? (nt) (nt) -- Ferdinand -- 24 Dec 01, 7:30 pm
  • changing levels makes a huge difference -- DD' -- 24 Dec 01, 9:46 pm
    • Parlay -- John -- 25 Dec 01, 6:09 am
      • both are bad ideas -- DD' -- 25 Dec 01, 8:10 am

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