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Initial running count for the Key Card Count

Posted By: Fred Renzey
Date: 9 Dec 01, 10:06 am

In Response To: Renzey? (Robear)

Robear, Your starting count depends upon the number of decks in play. You want to begin at a number such that a running count of "20" down the road will be equal to a +1.5 true count (as nearly as possible). With a six deck shoe, that starting number would be "10". Here are a couple of examples:

IF "X" COUNT IT SHOULD THAT'S "X" AND "X" DKS. THEN YOUR
DKS.IN: IS: HAVE BEEN: TOO MANY: ARE LEFT T/C IS:
1 20 12 8 5 +1.6
2 20 14 6 4 +1.5
3 20 16 4 3 +1.33
4 20 18 2 2 +1.0

UNDERSTAND THAT THE FEWER DECKS THAT REMAIN, THE LESS OF A "PLUS" COUNT YOU NEED TO HAVE AN EDGE. This is because your disadvantage with a neutral count when only two decks remain is less than what it was off the top of the full six decks. Also, because of the abbreviated nature of this count, a +1.0 true count yields a more positive edge than +1.0 would with a broader count system. That's because here, the deficient low cards are all 4's and 5's rather than a combination of 2's thru 6's, or maybe 2's thru 7's.

The appropriate starting counts for other numbers of decks are listed below:

1 Deck 18

2 Decks 17

4 Decks 14

8 Decks 6

Note that in my book, I gave slightly different starting recommendations. My intention at that time was to render "20" equal to +2.0 T/C at all times. Subsequent computer testing has yielded modestly better results by ramping up the bets a little sooner. Regards, Fred Renzey

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