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Here is an example

Posted By: SOTSOG
Date: 25 Oct 01, 6:01 pm

In Response To: ok, but why? (sy)

First hand in a single deck game, you get an ace as your first card.
What are the chances that you get a 10 as your second card and get a blackjack? (16 tens / 51 remaining cards) = .3137 or about 1/3 the time.

Now in an eight deck game, first hand, you get an ace. What are your chances of getting a blackjack?
(128 tens / 415 remaining cars) = .3084 (slightly less than above.)

Notice that it is equally likely to get an ace as your first card in each game, but what happens after is slightly worse as each deck is added. This happens in a lot of different situations, suppose you have two small cards that add up to 11 and double down. The probabilty (with two small cards removed from play by being in your hand) of getting a 10 card for 21 on your double is slightly greater playing against a smaller number of decks.

If the dealer has four small cards and has to hit again, what are the chances of getting a big card and busting, as opposed to getting another small card for 21? Well, if he is using eight decks instead of 6, he has 2 more decks worth of small cards that he could possibly draw and make his hand.

Messages In This Thread

• help for new guy -- sy -- 25 Oct 01, 5:23 pm
  • Yes -- SOTSOG -- 25 Oct 01, 5:35 pm
    • ok, but why? -- sy -- 25 Oct 01, 5:41 pm
      • Here is an example -- SOTSOG -- 25 Oct 01, 6:01 pm
        • Some numbers to back you up -- Grinder -- 25 Oct 01, 7:18 pm
          • Do you have the numbers for simultaneous blackjacks.?.. -- Steve Harley -- 25 Oct 01, 7:32 pm
            • geez - can't make ya happy :-) no :-( (nt) -- Grinder -- 25 Oct 01, 7:52 pm
              • That's ok, you made the rest of us happy. :: :: (nt) -- Hard 8 -- 26 Oct 01, 5:51 am
              • Thought the post was excellent. I just felt like bringing up.. -- Steve Harley -- 26 Oct 01, 8:53 am
                • I was just kidding - wish I had that stat! (nt) -- grinder -- 26 Oct 01, 9:32 am
                  • simultaneuos blackjacks -- SOTSOG -- 26 Oct 01, 3:06 pm
                    • That's all very well -- Francis Salmon -- 26 Oct 01, 4:04 pm
                      • Yes. It is in your Anecdote post -- SOTSOG -- 26 Oct 01, 4:19 pm
            • Anecdote -- Francis Salmon -- 26 Oct 01, 12:00 pm
        • Here's the difference in house's advantage... -- Spokanimal -- 25 Oct 01, 7:40 pm
      • Sy -- Frank Stanton -- 25 Oct 01, 7:24 pm
        • To push the point further... -- Steve Harley -- 26 Oct 01, 9:07 am
          • Excellent Steve -- Frank Stanton -- 26 Oct 01, 1:09 pm
    • Don't know where you got that one from -- Green Baize Vampire -- 26 Oct 01, 4:33 am
      • You are correct -- SOTSOG -- 26 Oct 01, 3:03 pm
        • Stop drinking the brake fluid (nt) -- Green Baize Vampire -- 28 Oct 01, 7:55 am
          • According to the Mugwump team manual -- SOTSOG -- 28 Oct 01, 8:01 am
            • Exposing brake fluid to the air... -- Green Baize Vampire -- 28 Oct 01, 8:35 am
  • Putting things into perspective for a BS player... -- Rec. Player -- 26 Oct 01, 10:03 pm
    • Griffin's rule of thumb -- Francis Salmon -- 27 Oct 01, 12:12 am

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